We are currently investigating intermittent issues affecting access to some articles and pages on our site. We apologize for any inconvenience and are working to resolve this as quickly as possible.

Facebook Marketplace Deal Doesn’t Move the Needle for eBay

We think it’s too early to see the impact of this partnership and prefer Etsy in this space.

Erin Lash, CFA 9 January, 2025 | 3:27PM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

ebay logo

Shares of narrow-moat eBay EBAY surged more than 9% after wide-moat Meta META revealed a pilot partnership to feature some of eBay’s listings on Facebook Marketplace for select users in Germany, France, and the US amid recent antitrust rulings by the European Commission. While the market is championing this announcement as a potential boon to eBay’s gross merchandise volume, we believe it’s still too early in the integration phase to adequately assess its long-term impact and see eBay’s decision as a defensive move to protect against share losses in a highly competitive market.

Key Morningstar Metrics for eBay

Fair Value Estimate: $59 Morningstar Rating: 3 stars Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

No Change Expected to eBay Stock Fair Value

Further, we think the agreement is shrouded in unfavorable side effects, including the potential for margin dilution, limitations to its scale, and/or the ultimate longevity of the agreement, which could each dampen the intended benefits. While some competitors appear to be embracing a similar course, as seen in wide-moat Amazon’s AMZN agreements with Meta and narrow-moat Pinterest PINS, we don’t believe this implies eBay will pursue this avenue with other operators or channels. Thus, we are skeptical that this will be viewed as a key long-term strategy. We continue to have a positive view of eBay’s existing playbook, particularly its focus on its core categories that attract high-value enthusiast buyers, which we expect will help drive 3%-4% annual GMV growth over our long-term forecast.

With all things considered, we don’t plan on materially altering our $59 fair value estimate. When accounting for the runup in stock price, though, we don’t see eBay shares as attractive. Instead, we believe investors looking to build exposure to the online marketplace space should consider wide-moat Etsy ETSY, which trades around a 45% discount to our $100 fair value estimate. We think investors are overly fixated on recent share losses and have failed to consider shifts in mix and geography, the cyclical nature of these pressures, and the fact that maturing cohorts should help drive lower churn and buoy spending over time.

eBay Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

Source: Morningstar Direct.


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Erin Lash, CFA  Erin Lash, CFA, is a senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

© Copyright 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures