Your 2025 Investment Outlook: Investors Brace for More Uncertainty

Much hinges on the market’s assumption that interest rates will continue to fall.

Ollie Smith 9 December, 2024 | 8:59AM
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Illustration sur des jumelles avec des éléments graphiques et un graphique de série temporelle en arrière-plan

Events don’t obey the convenient constraints of calendar years.

This time last year, investors were made wise to the idea that interest rates might be “higher for longer”. But many underestimated how long.

As 2025 appears on the horizon, fund managers, traders, central bankers, and retail investors are discovering that “higher for longer” may mean years not months.

European Equity Markets: Opportunity or Risk?

There is plenty of optimism around. Not least from the analysts and portfolio managers at Morningstar Investment Management, whose 2025 outlook supports the view that falling interest rates will buoy equity valuations.

“The relative picture is even more compelling with Europe—the UK in particular—making it the most attractive developed markets region globally,” it says.

“Add to this the macroeconomic tailwinds of rising gross domestic product, falling inflation, and lower interest rates, and the picture looks even brighter.”

Even the Bank of England’s own governor, Andrew Bailey, thinks four rate cuts are on the cards next year. But whether this will happen is uncertain.

The most recent inflationary trend is upwards across Europe and the wider Western world. Even if that is a marginal increase by historical standards, it’s a reminder that the days of ultra-low interest rates are probably over.

Fixed Income: Falling Rates, Difficult Decisions

But events are events. Economic dislocation, conflict, and the effect of tariffs and trade wars could really upset the hopeful in 2025.

That could make central banks even more cautious about lowering rates. The raising of rates feel like an impossibility.

“Given the rise in government debt levels following the covid-19 pandemic, any increase in interest rates would make the cost of servicing that debt more challenging, forcing governments to cut spending, increase taxes, or both, to bring their debt under control,” Morningstar’s report says.

Nowhere is this more important than in the world of fixed income. If interest rates are indeed falling, holding cash suddenly looks less attractive, prompting questions about where investors can best get decent returns.

In bonds, falling interest rates will drive up the price of bonds, but generally drive down yields.

“Should our core federal-funds rate forecasts play out, investors would benefit by holding longer-term fixed-income bonds to maintain higher income levels,” Morningstar’s report says.

“For example, the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.3%. If we assume a 1% term spread (the difference between shorter and longer-term bond yields to account for the risk of longer-term investments), that implies an expected average federal-funds rate of 3.3% over the next 10 years.

“By contrast, we expect the federal-funds rate to average 2.3% over the next 10 years. Consequently, longer-term government bonds appear to offer an unusually high return relative to cash deposits.”

Macroeconomics, Geopolitics and Markets

There could be some serious geopolitical turbulence in the next 12 months. At the moment, the impact of a second Donald Trump term (from January) looks uncertain in the longer-term, but we already know the potential short-term knock-on effects of US tariffs on global trade, international relations, and equity valuations.

Nowhere will this be more obvious in the supply chains for the world’s semiconductor stocks, which, in the US, have driven spectacular returns, albeit with some volatility.

In Ukraine, there are limited suggestions of negotiations beginning, but for now the war grinds on. And in the Middle East, where centuries of tension are playing out in this latest chapter of grief, alliances and hostilities are likely to have a knock-on effect on commodity prices and wider macroeconomic confidence.

Throughout, it’s important for UK equity investors to remember the FTSE 100 is a globally-diversified index of companies that derive around 75-80% of their revenue from markets outside the UK.

2025 Outlook Articles This Week

Readers can look forward to a plethora of articles this week—answering some key questions about the investing environment they can expect in the next 12 months.

Monday Dec. 9 2024:

Five Investment Lessons from 2024

What to Expect From The UK Stock Market in 2025

Tuesday Dec. 10 2024:

What Investors Can Expect From The Euro in 2025

The Crypto Outlook for 2025

Video: Our European Equity Market Strategist on What to Expect

Wednesday Dec. 11 2024:

Three Investment Mistakes to Avoid in 2025

UK Fund Managers Make Their 2025 Calls

Thursday Dec. 12 2024:

The US Fixed Income Outlook

Morningstar Experts Share Their Book Tips

Investment Ideas for 2025

Friday Dec. 13 2024:

Our European Equity Outlook For 2025

What Will Your Financial Goals be Next Year?


The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

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The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Ollie Smith

Ollie Smith  is editor of Morningstar UK

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