Lukas Strobl: Hello again from Amsterdam. We’re still at Morningstar’s Sustainable Investing Summit 2024, and I’m now joined by its Tancrede Fulop, Morningstar’s Senior Analyst for Renewables. And it’s been quite a week, hasn’t it? Yesterday we got a very clear result in the US election, and most stocks rose, but European renewables tanked. Now, of course, overnight then also most of those companies had reported earnings. So what was the Trump factor in this massive decline?
Tancrede Fulop: The Trump factor was clearly the dominant factor in this big earning share price decline of double digits in some cases, much more than earnings, which were not exceptionally good, but not catastrophic either.
Strobl: Now, in this new situation that those stocks find themselves in, I mean, many are quite exposed to the US. What are your top picks in the sector?
Fulop: After its big fall yesterday, I think Orsted is massively undervalued. So this is leading global offshore wind leader with some exposure to the US, two offshore wind farms under construction. The thing is these two farms got their federal approval. That means that Trump cannot block them. They will be commissioned. However, there is some risk regarding the tax credits of these two farms under construction. They have a 30% tax credit plus a 10% bonus investment tax credit, so 40% total. And this 10% is part of the Inflation Reduction Act. These tax credits are very important for the returns of those two projects. And with Trump, there is a risk that they will lose the 10% bonus. And in a very worst case, that they will lose the full tax credit, which will make these projects not profitable at all, and which will have a negative valuation impact. But after the sharp price fall of yesterday, it is excessively priced in.
Strobl: Any other picks besides Orsted?
Fulop: So, Orsted is a pure wind renewables developer. Otherwise, I like SSE. So renewables account for a big chunk of earnings, but less than 50%. The other 50% comes from the electricity grid, in the UK. The company has no US exposure. So there will be big investments in the electricity networks that will boost earnings.
Strobl: Right. So two picks, Orsted and SSE. In the longer term, if demand for renewable energy equipment, for example, and installation declines in the US, can demand in Europe and elsewhere offset this?
Fulop: Yes. So investment opportunities in Europe are massive due to the current emission target and decarbonization target in place in Europe. So that can be offset. Yes.
Strobl: Got it. Well, thank you for this, Tancrede. Thank you for your top picks in the sector. For Morningstar, I’m Lukas Strobl.
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