Raising Fair Value for Tesla After Strong Q3 Earnings

Stock rises on earnings beat and higher expectations for Q4 profits.

Seth Goldstein, CFA 24 October, 2024 | 8:58AM
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Tesla delivered third-quarter earnings above consensus estimates. During the first half of the year, Tesla’s profit margins fell to multiyear low levels, largely due to a decline in the automotive segment. In the third quarter, Tesla’s automotive business generated 160 basis points of gross profit margin expansion to 20.1% driven by deliveries growth; lower cost per vehicle—including lower raw materials costs; and higher autonomous driving software revenue. In our view, the results signal that the first half of 2024 was likely the bottom for Tesla’s automotive gross profits, as we expect fourth-quarter results will also exceed 20%.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Tesla


What We Thought of Tesla’s Earnings

We’re raising our fair value estimate to $210 per share from $200 following the strong results.

The increase is due to our forecast for slightly higher near-term deliveries and higher 2024 gross profit margins in the automotive segment. We’ve also raised our outlook for the energy generation and storage segment due to the strong demand for utility-scale batteries, known as the Megapack.

Tesla’s stock was up 12% in after-hours trading as the market reacted positively to the strong results and management’s improved 2024 outlook. At current prices, we view shares as slightly overvalued, with the stock trading a little less than 15% above our updated fair value estimate but in 3-star territory.

More Details on Tesla’s Affordable Vehicle

Management affirmed its timeline for the new more affordable vehicle to enter production in the first half of 2025. Management said the price would come in below $30,000 after incentives. This is in line with our view that the vehicle will be priced in the mid-$30,000 range. We expect a smaller impact on deliveries from this vehicle in 2025 as management begins production. As a result, we forecast 2025 deliveries will grow at a low-single-digit rate, well below CEO Elon Musk’s 2025 deliveries guidance of 20%-30% growth. However, we forecast double-digit deliveries growth in 2026, driven by the new vehicle as production ramps up.

In energy generation and storage, Tesla achieved full production capacity at its Megapack facility, an annual rate of 40 gigawatt-hours of batteries. Management affirmed its timeline for the China Megapack facility to enter production in early 2025. This should enable high-double-digit deployments growth in 2025, following our outlook for deployments to more than double in 2024 versus 2023.


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Seth Goldstein, CFA  Seth Goldstein, CFA, is an equity analyst for Morningstar

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