The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 2.5% in August from year-ago levels — a decrease from July’s 2.9% rate. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.2% in August over the last 12 months after rising 3.2% in July.
The CPI increased 0.2% in August from month-ago levels, as it did in July. Core CPI increased 0.3% after rising 0.2% in July.
Economists had anticipated that the CPI inflation would rise 0.2% in August, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. Annual inflation had been forecast to come down to a 2.6% rate. Core CPI inflation was forecast to increase 0.2% in August and 3.2% on an annual basis.
August CPI Report Key Stats
• CPI rose 0.2% for the month, as it did in July.
• Core CPI climbed 0.3% after rising by 0.2% in July.
• CPI rose 2.5% year over year after rising by 2.9% the prior month.
• Core CPI rose 3.2% from year-ago levels after rising 3.2% in July.
Food prices increased 0.1% in August after growing 0.2% in July. Food-at-home prices stayed the same over the month, while food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices increased 0.3%.
Energy prices declined over the month, down 0.8% overall after holding steady the prior month. Utility (piped) gas service prices fell 1.9%, fuel oil prices fell 1.9%, gasoline prices declined 0.6%, and electricity prices fell 0.7%.
In August, shelter prices increased 0.5% after rising 0.4% in July.
With the release of the August CPI report, attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting next. Investors are widely expecting the Fed to cut interest rates for the first since the central bank began its aggressive campaign to stamp our surging inflation with tighter monetary policy in March 2022.
The debate in the markets has been by how much the Fed will cut rates. While some in the bond market had been looking for the Fed to take an aggressive stance and lower the federal-funds rate target by a half percentage point from its current 5.25%-5.5% target, investors now appear to be leaning toward a quarter-point cut when the decision is announced Wednesday afternoon.