Burberry is About to be Kicked Out The FTSE 100. Can it Return?

The fashion brand's share price continues to fall, but Morningstar analyst Jelena Sokolova says the company is capable of reinventing itself

Christopher Johnson 28 August, 2024 | 12:26PM
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Burberry UK Main

Burberry (BRBY) is about to be booted off the FTSE 100.

According to FTSE Russell, which manages the UK's blue-chip index, a decision will be made following its next quarterly review. Investors will know after market close on Tuesday next week.

Shares in the Narrow-Moat luxury fashion designer have suffered steep declines of late, losing 50% of their value in 2024 so far, and 70% over the past 12 months.

Key Morningstar Metrics For Burberry (BRBY

Morningstar Fair Value Estimate: £13.30
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow 
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
• Discount to Fair Value: 48% 
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical 

According to Jelena Sokolova, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, Burberry has been shackled by three main hurdles. So far it has been unable to overcome them.

"[Firstly,] high exposure to slower growing apparel and relatively small exposure in terms of revenue to iconic outerwear products," she says.

"An unsuccessful push into fashion-forwardness with three creative director changes over the last 10 years and a failed push into leather goods, [which is a] very competitive area with strong established players where Burberry's brand is not strong enough.

"[Then there's] recent price hikes coinciding with a slowdown in luxury buying and a special weakness of aspirational consumer." This latter factor has in part been driven by weaker-than-expected economic growth in China.

Sokolova does still see potential upside in Burberry's shares, and gives the company a Fair Value Estimate of £13.30.  

"Historically, luxury downturns have not lasted longer than one to two years and Burberry has a chance to reinvent itself through a renewed focus on key outerwear collections and more affordable ranges," Sokolova says.  

In July Morningstar reduced its Fair Value Estimate for Narrow-Moat Burberry from £15.70, reflecting weaker expectations for this year, as well as a slower long-term sales recovery.  

Burberry's sales revenue was down 21% in the three months to the June 29. Sales in the Asia Pacific Region also dropped 23%, while sales in mainland China and the Americas fell 21% and 23%, respectively. 

The disappointing results led the company to suspend its dividend.

Which Funds Own Burberry?

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Burberry Group PLC677.80 GBX-2.17Rating

About Author

Christopher Johnson  is data journalist at Morningstar

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