Kering shares slumped more than 8% at Thursday's European open after the luxury group released a negative outlook for the second half of the year.
Kering KER
• Fair Value Estimate: EUR448 (prev. EUR464)
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
• Economic Moat: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
We are reducing our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Kering to EUR448 per share to factor in worse expectations for the second half of the year as the company grapples with an industry downturn and weak brand momentum. We still believe that shares offer meaningful upside at current levels for patient investors, trading in 5-star territory.
Kering reported a weak set of results in the first half of the year with sales in the second quarter down 11% on a constant-exchange basis (a slight sequential worsening from the first quarter). Gucci was the main reason for poor sales, down 19% at constant currencies (18% decline in the first quarter). However, other brands were also down, except for Bottega Veneta with sales up 4%. Performance is toward the lower end of previously reported peers against a weak industry backdrop.
For Gucci, whose recovery is key to the investment thesis, only around 25% of its assortment was made up of new designer collections in the quarter and those performed better than carryover styles, hit by diminishing traffic and weak demand from aspirational consumers. Gucci's margin held up somewhat better than we expected, reaching 24.7% (our assumption for the full year was 23%, down from 33% in 2023), but margins for other brands also came under pressure and resulted in a 42% drop in operating profit. For the second half, the company guides for a 30% drop in operating profit with no margin improvement from the first half. New product launches for Gucci are expected to be supported by marketing investments. However, the company is becoming cautious about other spending.