Earnings Season: How Are The GRANOLAS Stocks Doing?

The European 'GRANOLAS' stocks are reporting their second quarter earnings. Here’s what our analysts made of the results

Sunniva Kolostyak 24 July, 2024 | 12:52AM
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It's not just the US that does catchy group names. The "Magnificent Seven" is made up exclusively of US tech stocks, but Europe's GRANOLAS offer their own benefits through smaller market caps, diversification, profitability, and, on average, cheaper valuations.

In 2020, investment bank Goldman Sachs released its first iteration of the GRANOLAS, an acronym for the following:

• GSK (GSK)
• Roche (ROG)
• ASML (ASML)
• Nestle (NESN)
• Novartis (NOVN)
• Novo Nordisk (NOVO B)
• L'Oreal (OR)
• LVMH (MC)
• AstraZeneca (AZN)
• SAP (SAP)
• Sanofi (SAN)

As these companies report their Q2 and half-year results, Morningstar analysts will be updating their assessments of how attractive each share is to investors.

Novartis: Diverse Drug Portfolio with a Strong Cash Flow Pipeline

• Fair Value Estimate: CHF 96.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★ 
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium

Analyst: Damien Conover, sector director, Morningstar

Novartis' (NOVN) earnings, released on July 18, beat analyst expectations with operational sales growing 11% and sales of key drug Entresto up 28%. The company's share price however fell slightly, but overall, Novartis is still up 17% this year.

We are holding steady to our $105/CHF 96 fair value estimate (ADR/local share class) following solid second-quarter results that, although slightly ahead of our projections, were not enough to move the valuation. We believe the market is appropriately valuing the stock, with a balanced view of the strength of the pipeline offsetting patent losses, setting up moderate growth over the next three years while also supporting a wide moat over the long term.

LVMH: Growth to Slow, Fair Value Maintained

• Fair Value Estimate: €670.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★ 
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium

Analyst: Jelena Sokolova, senior equity analyst, Morningstar

LVMH's (MC) share price fell 4% when the company published its half year earnings on July 23. The luxury sector is facing weakening demand with the less affluent developed market consumers being particularly hit. However, sales to Chinese nationals is up about 10% and Morningstar argues that demand in the country has pent-up upside potential. Sales for the group increased 3% in local currencies (and were down with a 4% currency headwind). Sales for its most profitable and largest division, fashion and leather goods, came at 2%. Revenue growth for fashion and leather goods was price-driven, with mix and volumes largely offsetting each other.

We are maintaining our fair value estimate of €670 for wide-moat LVMH as the company reported an expected slowdown in growth trends in the first quarter. We view shares as modestly overvalued at current levels.

ASML: Shares Hit by US Restriction Concerns

• Fair Value Estimate: €900.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★ 
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

Analyst: Javier Correonero, equity analyst, Morningstar

ASML (ASML) reported sales and gross margins slightly above guidance in Q2, at €6.24 billion and 51.5%, respectively. The company reported on July 17 while simultaneously, reports of potential US restrictions on chip sales to China broke, and the company's (and other semiconductor companies') share price fell. ASML reiterated its long-term guidance, which will be updated in the November capital markets day. Our long-term forecasts are at the high end of management's 2030 guidance.

Although we don't discard incremental trade restrictions for ASML, a heavy crackdown is not our base case, and we are maintaining our €900 fair value estimate. Even if more ASML systems are targeted, we expect China will continue ordering nonrestricted DUV machines at high levels and exploit any loopholes in the supply chain. If the US wants to effectively curb China's advancements, it would also need to focus on other technologies beyond lithography such as advanced packaging, deposition or etching equipment, among others.

SAP: Fair Value Hiked, Customer Retention Risk

• Fair Value Estimate: €141.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★ 
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium

Analyst: Julie Sharma, equity analyst, Morningstar

SAP (SAP) reported a solid second quarter on July 22, with broad-based growth and cloud revenue continuing to increase forcefully. Total revenue in the quarter was €8.3 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year increase in constant currency. The firm stressed that 60% of its RISE with SAP customers were net new. However, we continue to view this stat as a risk, as it implies a substantial base of existing customers that could churn off SAP when moving to the cloud.

With earnings, SAP's roadmap for margin expansion showed more promise with detailed internal artificial intelligence directives and commentary on streamlining their digital marketing. As a result, this increased our fair value estimate to €141 per share from €132. We have moderately raised our midcycle operating margin assumptions based on a more precise roadmap for operational efficiencies. Despite our fair value adjustments, we view the stock as overvalued – as we believe SAP's ERP market share will continue to decline due to fiercer competition from the likes of Workday.

This article will be updated as fresh earnings results arrive.

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The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
ASML Holding NV833.70 EUR-2.62Rating
AstraZeneca PLC12,222.00 GBX0.26Rating
GSK PLC1,507.62 GBX-0.12Rating
L'Oreal SA398.15 EUR-0.19Rating
Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE660.10 EUR-0.17Rating
Nestle SA93.70 CHF-0.59Rating
Novartis AG Registered Shares96.35 CHF0.18Rating
Novo Nordisk A/S Class B902.40 DKK-2.16Rating
Roche Holding AG273.10 CHF-0.07Rating
Sanofi SA93.47 EUR1.03Rating
SAP SE194.14 EUR-1.70

About Author

Sunniva Kolostyak

Sunniva Kolostyak  is senior data journalist for Morningstar.co.uk

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