Nike Earnings: Dim Sales Outlook Slams Shares, but Patient Investors Could be Rewarded

Morningstar analysts expect to reduce their Fair Value Estimate for Nike's shares

David Swartz 1 July, 2024 | 12:13AM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

Nike UK Main

Nike's (NKE) shares fell nearly 20% on June 28, as persistent sales weakness has added uncertainty to the firm's turnaround. Although the firm warned of a difficult demand environment for sportswear and we lowered our estimates, market conditions are more challenging than expected.

After posting flat sales growth in (May-ended) fiscal 2024, Nike guided to a mid-single-digit-percentage sales decline for fiscal 2025. Given that we projected 1% sales growth, we expect to reduce our fair value estimate of $129 per share by a low-single-digit percentage. Even so, we regard the share price weakness as an opportunity for long-term investors, since the sportswear leader stands to benefit from its planned marketing and product initiatives and the growth of the global market over the next few years.

Nike's 13.3% EBIT margin in its fiscal 2024 fourth quarter beat our estimate by 80 basis points and led to earnings per share of $0.99, which eclipsed our forecast by $0.11. However, this outperformance was mainly driven by a 9% reduction in overhead expenses and was overshadowed by the quarter's 2% sales decline, short of our estimate for a minimal (1%) gain. The firm attributed the slow sales to a few areas, including digital (down 10%), lifestyle products, some footwear, and uneven demand in key markets.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Nike

• Fair Value Estimate: $129.00;
• Morningstar Rating: 4 stars;
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide;
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium.

Nike Stock vs Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

Food For Thought From Expert Voices

Sign up Now

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Nike Inc Class B75.51 USD-0.70Rating

About Author

David Swartz  is a senior equity analyst at Morningstar

© Copyright 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures