James Gard: Welcome to Morningstar. Making another appearance as stock of the week is housebuilder Persimmon, which has just put out annual results.
As earnings season winds down, UK investors are in unforgiving mood. Ocado shares fell 10% on Wednesday and Persimmon shares fell by a similar amount as it warned on profits and cut its dividend.
What’s unsettled the market? 2022 was a good year for the company, with higher prices and completions. But this year’s outlook was gloomy, with forecasts for a big drop in home sales as the housing market slowdown accelerates. Nationwide figures show house prices falling for the first time since the pandemic. Higher mortgage rates aren’t helping, after the latest rise in Bank rate to 4%. The cost of building a new house has also gone up significantly. And the end of Help to Buy has removed stimulus from the lower end of the market.
Persimmon changed its dividend policy last year, having been one of the most generous payers in the last decade. But the stark realisation that the stock is nowing paying 60p for the year, against 235p in recent years, has added to the sense that the good times are over for the housebuilders.
Morningstar analysts have lowered their profit forecasts and fair value estimate after the results. But they insist that shares are now undervalued after recent weakness. Investors are rightly focused on the here and now. But housing market turmoil is likely to be shortlived, they argue, with sales and profits likely to recover in the medium term. Whether investors can wait patiently for the turnaround is a different matter.
For Morningstar, I’m James Gard.