The best performing sectors and investment styles in the first quarter of 2021 shared a common theme: the economic recovery. Markets started to factor in an exit from the pandemic and the end of the lockdown as Covid-19 vaccinations are rolled out across the globe.
If we look at the quarterly returns of Morningstar European fund categories, three themes immediately jump out: cyclical sectors, value stocks and small caps.
Looking at cyclical stocks firstly, energy and financial sector equity funds were among the leaders of the first quarter, delivering gains of +20.2% and +15.6%, respectively (as of March 31). The broadening out of the recovery boosted cyclical sectors during the quarter. In contrast, the technology sector, among the top performer last year, lagged behind with a return of 6.31% over the period.
Value investing
If 2020 was all about growth, then 2021 has seen a reversal thus far. Large-value stocks were among the winners of the first quarter, resulting in a change in the leadership across equity markets. Across all regions, value funds delivered positive returns, a sign that investors are expecting a recovery from areas which have been unloved in recent months such as financials and retail.
Large-Value Equity Funds’ Performance in the First Quarter 2021
Small-Cap Equity Funds
Investors also poured their optimism about the economic rebound into small-cap stocks, which are generally more closely inked to the domestic economy. Top performers were US small-cap equity funds (+15.7%), and UK small-cap (+14.5%). Europe followed further behind (+8.9%).
Small-Cap Equity Funds’ Performance in the First Quarter 2021
Worst Performing Fund Categories in Q1
At the other end of the spectrum, Turkish equity funds were among the worst performers of the first quarter. Markets reacted negatively to the removal in March of Naci Agbal, the governor of the Turkish Central Bank, who struggled to restore investors' confidence. "His exit in favor of a candidate with a political background and somewhat unorthodox economic views appears to represent a significant step backwards," according a recent fixed income report by M&G.
It was also a bad quarter for Brazil equities. The country has been in recession since 2016 and was hit hard by Covid-19. Companies suffered heavy profit declines and many investors are wondering if 2021 will mark a return to growth.
Turkish and Brazil Equity Funds Compared to Emerging Markets in Q1
Funds invseting in the stocks of precious metal companies suffered as the gold price fell, losing 7.8% on average during the first quarter. Gold was under pressure because of the rise in US government bond yields, since the two asset classes are negatively correlated.
Meanwhile, in the bond market, growing concerns about rising inflation have led to losses across interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the market even as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank committed themselves to easy-money policies. EUR bond- long term funds closed the first quarter with an average decline of 7.8% and they were among the worst categories in Q1. EUR government bonds (-1.7%) and EUR diversified bond (-1%) were also down. EUR Corporate bond lost 0.6%, while EUR high yield bond funds gained 1.1%.
Fixed Income Fund Categories in Q1