Morningstar analyst ratings are an accurate predictor of funds' future returns, a study has found. Tracking fund performance from 2011 to 2017, it found that ratings predictive power varies between asset classes, but is strongest in equities.
The excellent performance of Gold-rated funds paired with the stark underperformance of Negative-rated funds highlights analysts' ability to differentiate the best and worst equity funds within categories. The dichotomy further strengthens over time.
Multi-asset funds with a Gold, Silver, or Bronze Rating significantly outperformed their peers after fees. Bond funds data found the Silver, Bronze, and Neutral-rated compared well, but Gold-rated funds less so.
Among equity funds, Gold-rated funds strongly outperformed while Negative-rated funds heavily underperformed, and the differential grows over time. We further observed that only the Gold-rated funds have consistently beaten their category index.
Although the ratings have yet to experience a full market cycle, these results showcase that the Analyst Ratings have thus far succeeded in sorting funds' future risk-adjusted returns.
How Morningstar Analyst Ratings Work
Morningstar has conducted qualitative, analyst-driven research on funds since 1986. Morningstar's qualitative fund analysis has sought to help users make better investment decisions.
This forward-looking analysis culminates in the Morningstar Analyst Rating, which analysts have assigned to more than 4,500 funds globally on a five-tier scale: Gold, Silver, Bronze, Neutral and Negative.
The Analyst Rating is based on the analyst’s conviction in the fund’s ability to outperform its peer group anf relevant benchmark on a risk-adjusted basis over the long term.
If a fund receives a medalist rating of Gold, Silver, or Bronze, it means Morningstar analysts have high conviction in the fund's ability to outperform a relevant category average or index over a full market cycle, while Neutral and Negative ratings denote lower conviction.
The Analyst Rating is not a market call; it is meant to augment investors’ and advisers’ own work on funds. Indeed, the Analyst Rating accentuates the importance of factors like expenses and manager ownership of fund shares that can get short-shrift under commonly employed techniques for choosing funds, such as past performance.
Morningstar's global team of more than 100 analysts evaluates funds based on five key pillars — Process, Performance, People, Parent, and Price. These five pillars form the spine of our research approach, and we evaluate each of them when assessing a fund.