China will represent 40% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Global emerging-markets equity ETFs have proved popular with investors this year – taking more money than any other sector in the three months to the end of June. While the asset class has been on the front foot since the beginning of 2016, the recent slide in the US dollar, as well as increased valuations in developed market equities have only provided further support.
In Europe, the lion’s share of assets in emerging-markets equity ETFs is in products tracking the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. While funds tracking this well-known benchmark are generally cheaper, investors should question whether a standard market-cap weighted approach to emerging markets is the right investment option for them.
Emerging markets is a blanket term. The group is made up of about 20 countries, each with its own distinct policies, currencies, economic orientation, and companies. Apart from the central running theme of a sensitivity to the Chinese economy, there have been large performance differences among the individual markets.
During the commodity bubble, these differences were not as pronounced, as most emerging-markets countries were turbo-charged by China’s manufacturing engine operating at full speed. But now, with China’s economy slowing and looking to transition to a more diversified growth model, these developing economies are decoupling.
Protect Yourself from a Chinese Overweight
As such, investors seeking exposure to emerging-markets equities may be better served with more diversified funds than those tracking the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which is highly concentrated at the country level. Currently, China represents 29% of the entire portfolio and its allocation is only likely to get bigger.
In June 2017, MSCI announced that it will add 222 China A-Shares – onshore stocks listed in the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges – to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as part of a two-step process beginning in May 2018. Upon full inclusion, China is estimated to represent 40% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Investors seeking a more diversified approach may be better served with funds which cap single country weights. The innovative ETF industry already offers many products linked to indices meeting that criteria. And of course, investors may also consider the merits of actively managed emerging market equity funds, particularly those run by portfolio managers who are benchmark-agnostic.