Rosneft Deal Does Not Make Glencore Shares More Attractive

The Rosneft deal doesn’t move the needle for Glencore according to Moringstar analysts, and as such they do not plan to make any changes to the 60p fair value estimate

David Walker 9 December, 2016 | 12:18PM
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Glencore (GLEN) has announced that as part of a consortium with the Qatar Investment Authority, the firm is in the final stages of acquiring a 19.5% interest in Rosneft shares. We think the Rosneft deal doesn’t move the needle for Glencore for a few reasons, and as such do not plan to make any changes to our 60p fair value estimate. The shares are currently trading at £3.05 meaning we consider them significantly overvalued.

We continue to view Glencore shares as significantly overvalued following their rally

First, the size of Glencore’s investment is fairly small. Despite the headline €10.2 billion figure, Glencore will only be contributing €300 million in equity, with the balance provided by the QIA and nonrecourse bank financing. For comparison, Glencore had roughly EUR 38 billion of equity and generated roughly EUR 3.6 billion of EBITDA in the first half of 2016.

Second, while this does shift the company’s portfolio more toward oil, the overwhelming majority of cash flows will still be tied to base metals and thermal coal. Following the deal, Glencore will remain largely tied to the prospects for Chinese fixed-asset investment, which we expect to decelerate. 

Third, while this deal may increase the ability of Glencore’s oil marketing business to take advantage of more arbitrage opportunities by adding more nodes to the firm's trading network, we think the impact will be fairly small. The additional volumes only represent 220,000 barrels a day on top of the 1,200,000 barrels a day that traded in 2015. There were 795,000 barrels a day in first half 2016. 

We continue to view Glencore shares as significantly overvalued following their large rally alongside commodity prices in 2016 driven by unsustainable factors. Thermal coal rallied from $50 per tonne in January to $105 per tonne in November as a result of credit-fuelled Chinese stimulus and Chinese coal production cuts. However, prices have swung back to $87 per tonne in early December as Chinese coal production cut regulations have been reversed. We think prices for copper and thermal coal, Glencore’s most important products, have roughly 30% and 40% downside from spot prices, respectively.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Glencore PLC355.35 GBX0.35Rating

About Author

David Walker  David Walker is a Morningstar senior analyst based in Australia.

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