The oil price rally has hit a roadblock after OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries failed to agree a deal on an oil production cut or freeze at today’s meeting.
Tension between rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran was the focus of the meeting of the oil exporter group in Vienna on Thursday. While Iran is refusing any limitation on oil outputs, Saudi Arabia promised not to shock the oil market with additional barrels.
"We will be very gentle in our approach and make sure we don't shock the market in any way," Saudi’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said.
The news caused the oil price to falter, along with the share prices of related equities. International benchmark of crude oil, Brent crude traded 1.7% lower at $48.87 a barrel while the US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate, fell 2% to $48.02 a barrel. US energy producer HollyFrontier Corp (HFC) fell slightly 0.14% to 28.11p at 4pm London time while UK energy producer BP (BP.) fell 0.14%.
The 13-nation group has a history of regulating oil prices by controlling oil production. However efforts to impose oil production ceilings have failed in recent years, with countries ignoring them and producing as much they wanted. Iran has increased production by over 400,000 barrels per day since the end of 2015 and this trend seems likely to continue, potentially offsetting the declines in US production, according to Daniel Forgie, senior portfolio manager at Nikko Asset Management.
The Outlook for the Oil Price
Since December 2015, crude oil has risen by more than 80%, as supply and demand converged. Oil and product stock levels in the OECD have seen relative moderation, the oil exporter group said in a concluding statement after the Thursday meeting. It also stated that the improving environment was testament to the fact that the market is moving through the balancing process.
Martin Walker, UK equities fund manager at Invesco Perpetual agrees, saying that the supply will disappoint on the downside and demand will surprise on the upside, hence pulling the market back into balance.
“We think a rebalance of supply and demand could pull the market back into equilibrium in the second part of this year and then, on a three‑year view, I think there’s scope for the oil price to go higher still,” Walker added, “I strongly believe that on a three-year view the oil price will be higher than where it is today for basic supply and demand reasons; ultimately.”
Oil Price Reached $50
A recovery of crude oil prices has taken place since the middle of February in 2016, with the price of a barrel of oil this week reaching $50 for the first time since last Autumn.
Looking forward, the risk of a further fall in oil price has not disappeared, according Forgie, as he believes that the recent price recovery will likely incentivise low-cost producers to increase supply, hence capping the upside potential for prices.
“In addition, there have been various supply disruptions over the past several months that have contributed to the improvement in fundamentals. If those situations stabilize and the facilities return to optimal production, it would also be a headwind for prices,” Forgie said.
An Undervalued US Energy Stock
While oil price outlook looks slightly improved, investors might be interested to look at energy stock trading at a discount in the US.
At the current oil price, the sums do not add up to dividend growth according to Ciaran Mallon, UK equities fund manager at Invesco Perpetual, so the outlook for dividends will be very much dependent on a combination of heavy cost‑cutting, the oil price and what they pay out in dividends.
HollyFrontier Corp has a five-star Morningstar rating, meaning analysts consider it undervalued. The company owns and operates petroleum product pipelines and terminals principally in the Southwestern United States. It is one of the biggest beneficiaries of domestic crude discounts, and it steadily and generously returns cash to shareholders through special dividends or share repurchases, Morningstar analysts said. HollyFrontier is one of the most financially sound independent refiners. It currently holds very little net debt. During the past few years, HollyFrontier has paid a quarterly special dividend of $0.50 per share.