Stock in Focus: Barclays

Barclays' new strategy will build upon its mid-2014 revamp, which increased the group's focus on U.K. retail and commercial banking, say equity analysts

Erin Davis 15 October, 2015 | 11:30AM
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Barclays (BARC) spent much of 2015 at a crossroads but its path may soon be much clearer. New chairman John McFarlane is clearly determined to improve profitability, though it's been unclear how he intends to do so. Investors may soon have the answer, when new CEO James "Jes" Staley takes over, following former CEO Antony Jenkins' dismissal in July.

Stanley will maintain a sizable investment bank at Barclays

Staley, unlike Jenkins, has a strong background in investment banking. We think his appointment signals that Barclays intends to maintain an important presence in investment banking, even as it rationalises. We think that this could be difficult – Barclays' investment bank is sub-scale compared with U.S. competitors, and shrinking. Ultimately, we're unconvinced that the bank will consistently hit it 12% return on equity target.

We think Barclays' new strategy will, in large part, build upon its mid-2014 revamp, which increased the group's focus on the part of the business with a greater competitive advantage – U.K. retail and commercial banking, Barclaycard, and Africa.

Barclays controls nearly 20% of the U.K.'s retail banking market and regularly earns double-digit returns on equity in its Personal & Corporate Banking segment. We’re also impressed by Barclays' Barclaycard business, which has built cost advantages through scale in both the U.S. and the U.K. and earns returns on equity over 15%.

In contrast, Barclays’ investment bank has struggled to build scale and control costs – it invoked investor fury in 2013 when bonuses grew despite a drop in revenue. Barclays is now well through the process of cutting the size of its investment bank in half, to less than 30% of risk-weighted assets.

Looking forward, we think it's clear that Staley will maintain a sizable investment bank at Barclays, although he'll need to continue to cut or shrink underperforming lines. We think the biggest question Staley will face is what shape this will take, and how best to improve the investment bank's profitability.

Higher capital requirements will continue to bite, as will higher funding costs as Barclays implements ring-fencing. We think that cost controls and a focus on areas of strength will be key to Barclays' success with this strategy.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Barclays PLC257.20 GBX-2.08Rating

About Author

Erin Davis  is a senior banking analyst for Morningstar.

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