We think that the news that Barclays (BARC) is planning to appoint Jes Staley as CEO is a strong signal that Barclays is going to return to its universal bank roots – maintaining a strong investment bank – rather than follow in the footsteps of other European banks which have shifted to focus on retail and commercial banking. Staley has deep roots in investment banking, having led the investment bank at JPMorgan during his 30-year career there.
The risk of this move should not be understated
Most recently, he spent two years at Blue Mountain Capital, a U.S. hedge fund, after leaving JPMorgan in the wake of a power struggle. Staley's appointment is expected to be announced formally in the next two weeks, once it has been approved by regulators. We plan to maintain our £3.20 fair value estimate and no-moat rating for the bank.
We think that a renewed emphasis on investment banking is a promising, if risky, move for Barclays. On one hand, it's surprising, as Barclays has a strong retail and commercial banking business in the U.K. which would be an obvious choice for a likely successful, if middling strategy. We typically have seen a focus on investment banking from banks like Deutsche Bank, that have been less successful in other businesses – the German retail banking market suffers excess supply, for example – and have fewer good cards to play.
But on the other hand, European banks have ceded market share in investment banking to U.S. banks, and there's clearly an opening for one or more large European-focused investment banks, especially if European firms are able to transition from bank-financed to market-financed business models.
The risk of this move should not be understated, however. Barclays' investment bank has struggled to earn double-digit returns on equity in the wake of tougher regulation and capital rules. A turnaround will require winning back a significant amount of market share on the strength of the bank's brand and network, rather than merely paying up for well-connected employees.