eBay (EBAY) has been assigned a high uncertainty rating, based on the rapidly evolving e-commerce and mobile commerce landscape and management's ability to return core GMV growth to historical levels; questions about how successful the operational and shared services agreements between eBay and PayPal will be in driving customer acquisition after the separation; and the potential for mergers or acquisitions for the company.
If management continues to strengthen its relationship with third-party sellers and expands consumer awareness of its recent Marketplaces improvements, we expect overall Marketplaces transaction growth momentum to continue. Assuming that global gross merchandise volume increases at a 6% average annual growth rate from 2015-24, compared with 3% in our base-case scenario, we would anticipate average annual revenue growth for the Marketplaces segment of 6% annually, using a slightly higher take rate than our base-case assumptions.
Even though eBay's cost structure is largely fixed, we've assumed that adjusted operating margins grow slightly faster than our base case under these assumptions – returning to pre-separation levels approaching 40% by 2024 – owing to increased scale and operating efficiencies. Our fair value estimate would be approximately $39 per share.
Assuming that eBay Marketplaces' gross merchandise volume continues to languish, we could see a scenario where Marketplaces' segment volume growth only recovers to nominally positive growth after 2015. With Marketplaces' take rates also declining faster than our base case under this scenario amid a fiercely competitive e-commerce landscape, average annual Marketplaces segment revenue growth would potentially slow to flat growth.
We'd also expect fewer margin expansion opportunities under these assumptions, keeping average adjusted operating margins in the low 30s over the next 10 years. This scenario yields a fair value estimate of $20 per share.