Morningstar's "Perspectives" series features investment insights from third-party contributors. Here, Alan Higgins, UK CIO for Coutts give his views on China.
Last week’s yuan devaluation by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) initially led to a plunge in the yuan, while government bonds rose and equities fell on fears of a slowing Chinese economy. But we believe the PBOC’s move was as much about moving towards a more flexible exchange rate policy as worries over growth.
The PBOC line is that the devaluation is part of structural reforms intended to make the yuan more responsive to market forces. This reflects China’s desire for the yuan to be granted “reserve” status by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). That requires inclusion in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) – an internationally recognised reserve basket including the dollar, euro, sterling and yen, which is currently undergoing a five-yearly review due to be completed by year end.
We also see the yuan move as part of broader economic and market reforms, as the Chinese economy shifts away from a dependence on investment and exports to focus more on domestic demand. This shift should ultimately benefit both China and the world economy, in our view.
Weakish economic data from China recently suggests that there is also an element of monetary easing to the devaluation. If the devaluation were to head into double digits, that might indicate larger problems in the Chinese economy, but we believe this is unlikely.
We don’t anticipate China’s modest devaluation having much impact on the global economy. It may be slightly disinflationary, since China will export more keenly priced products to the world, placing pressure on China’s competitors like Japan and Taiwan.
Effects on the developed economies, though, should be small, and won’t take rate rises in the US and UK off the agenda. US retail sales data, for example, has been solid in July following a stronger-than-expected May and June, supporting the case for monetary tightening.
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