Is Now the Time to Buy China Equity?

The Chinese market has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past year, particularly in recent weeks, but should investors be taking advantage of the recent falls?

Jeremy Beckwith 10 July, 2015 | 1:19PM
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Jeremy Beckwith: So what a year it’s been for the Chinese stock market. A year ago the Shanghai Composite was at 2,000; on June 10 this year it was at 5,000 and now it’s fallen back to 3,500. A real rollercoaster ride.

It started because the Chinese – the People’s Bank of China – began to cut interest rates and ease monetary policy, which is the traditional sign for the start of a bull market across developed markets. And that gradually built up momentum. At the same time property prices in China started to fall, amid rampant speculation, so people began to switch their savings from property to the stock market. Initially in the larger-cap stocks, but over the last 6 or 7 months in particular we’ve seen huge rises in speculation in the smaller-cap stocks in China, many of which are not accessible to foreign investors.

This last few weeks the market has fallen very sharply, the large-cap stocks have fallen 30% in just a month, but the smaller-cap stocks have fallen even more sharply than that and caused real panic I think in the households of many Chinese. The Chinese government tried to intervene very aggressively to stop prices falling.

All this shows, I think, that China is still a very young stock market. The investors in China don’t really understand what they’re doing and why they invest in stocks. And therefore caution needs to be taken. However, the large-cap stocks I think have probably now fallen back to a level of valuation that’s now attractive again. We’ve seen the Fidelity China Special Situations fund manager come out and say he’s prepared to invest again at these levels. And therefore it probably is a time to put a toe back cautiously into the Chinese stock market, provided you are aware of the risks and provided you stick to the safer larger-cap stocks. The small-cap Chinese market is a real casino.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Fidelity China Special Ord211.50 GBX0.48Rating

About Author

Jeremy Beckwith  is Director of Manager Research for Morningstar UK

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