Carnival (CCL) is the largest company in the cruise industry, operating 10 global brands with 100 ships in service and passenger capacity of around 200,000, allowing the firm to reach a diverse group of consumers in a lightly penetrated vacation segment. Efficient scale, the lowest unit costs in the industry, and intangible brand assets provide the company with a narrow economic moat.
We believe Carnival's market remains underpenetrated, as only half of the addressable market has ever cruised, although the firm believes 75% of the addressable market will plan to cruise in the next five years. With low domestic penetration rates and even lower international recognition, upside potential remains significant. Additionally, Carnival has the best ability to capitalise on underserved markets like Asia Pacific and Latin America, where we believe it could succeed in the years ahead, thanks to its global reach and tailored fleet.
Domestically, the aging population remains a linchpin in our opinion regarding the supply/demand imbalance in the cruise industry. This segment will drive demand and create a disconnect between the demand in the market and the supply of berths over the next five years as the 65-and-older demographic grows faster than overall cruise industry capacity growth.
Additionally, the repositioning and deployment of ships to faster-growing regions like Asia Pacific helps balance supply in high-capacity regions like the Caribbean, which should allow Carnival to implement more lucrative pricing strategies globally.
The firm expects to receive only two ships in 2015, maintaining moderate supply growth until 2016, when it deploys four new ships. We expect the company can continue to lower costs through improved procurement expenses, with a newly appointed chief procurement officer, and better fuel efficiencies, particularly as the more efficient fleet comes into service starting in 2019, while improving revenue via shared best practices through updated revenue management processes.
Global economic instability and further headline risk could blunt this tailwind in the near term, however.