Alibaba: How has the Biggest Ever IPO Fared?

As a third-party e-commerce platform operator, Alibaba allows millions of buyers and sellers to connect and transact with each other

R.J. Hottovy, CFA 12 June, 2015 | 11:12AM
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By operating some of the world’s largest online marketplaces, Alibaba (BABA) benefits from a strong network effect in the rapidly growing e-commerce industry in China. The firm has played a prominent role in China’s structural transition to online shopping from brick-and-mortar retail the past decade. Alibaba’s three major marketplaces – Taobao, Tmall, and Juhuasuan – together generated gross merchandise volume, or GMV, of CNY 2.274 trillion in calendar 2014, more than Amazon and eBay combined.

We expect the firm to benefit from several macroeconomic tailwinds

As a third-party e-commerce platform operator, Alibaba allows millions of buyers and sellers to connect, explore, and transact with each other. The company boasted 334 million annual active buyers as of December 30, 2014.

As China’s e-commerce market rapidly shifts from consumer to consumer to business to consumer, we believe Taobao will be instrumental in helping Alibaba adapt to changes in China's e-commerce landscape. Taobao's dominant network effect enhances Alibaba's entire ecosystem, providing low-cost organic traffic for Tmall and other B2C marketplaces while reducing a reliance on a salesforce for marketing services, also providing Alibaba additional cost advantages.

Alibaba's success with desktop transactions also gives the company key advantages over its competitors on the mobile end. Its trusted brand and self-reinforcing ecosystem convince us that the firm can copy its success to the mobile commerce market. Taobao's mobile app is already China's most popular mobile commerce app by user base. According to iResearch, Alibaba expanded its share of the mobile commerce market to 88% in the fourth quarter of 2014 from 83% in the same period in 2013.

We expect the firm to benefit from several macroeconomic, socioeconomic, and industry tailwinds. Continuous wealth creation and steady income growth among China's middle classes should enlarge the wallet share of users on Alibaba’s marketplaces. The relatively young user profile ensures the longevity of its network effect, while further penetration of broadband and mobile devices will fuel user growth and increased monetisation rates.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADR82.28 USD-2.41Rating

About Author

R.J. Hottovy, CFA  is a director of equity analysis with Morningstar.

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