Energy prices have tanked in the past six months. The price of Brent crude oil has fallen from $110 to less than $60. This has had a significant effect on funds that have both direct exposure to oil as a commodity and oil related companies – with the worst five performers all losing more than 40% of their value this year.
As oil and gas make up such a significant part of the Russian economy, funds which hold Russian-listed equities appear the most on the worst performers list, alongside two energy funds. The worst performing fund of the year was the Prosperity Russian fund, which has lost half its value since January. This fund currently carries a Morningstar Analyst Silver Rating, but if the bad performance continues for another year this may trigger a reassessment of the rating.
Wealth manager Rowan Dartington’s Guy Stephens does not expect the oil price to tick up next year – meaning both the Russian equity and energy sectors are unlikely to improve either.
“It is all about the falling oil price and the effect this will have on exporting countries and the industry itself, not to mention exposed banks in Canada and Russia which could lead to another credit default crisis as many indebted exploration businesses fail and there has been a run on the Rouble,” he warned.
But private bank Coutts is still positive on Russia, particularly since the authorities stepped in to halt the currency free fall.
“The sharp decline in both the rouble and crude oil prices has put the Russian equity market under significant pressure. But in rouble terms Russian equities have only fallen by 1.3% in the second half of 2014, highlighting that currency selling has had the greatest impact,” said James Butterfill, Global Equity Strategist at Coutts.
“Since the crisis precipitated in February, Russian equities have fallen 45% – in line with some of the worst geopolitical crises of the past, such as the Yom Kippur war or the Iraq/Kuwait war. But in both of those instances, as with 90% of geopolitical crises, three years after the event markets had recovered by an average of 32%.”
5 Worst Performing Funds this Year
Prosperity CMS Russian Prosperity Fund
Thesis Australian Natural Resources
Schroder International Selection Fund Global Small Cap Energy