Cheap Treat for Value Investors

THE VALUE INVESTOR: Want an undervalued high quality global company with emerging market exposure? Look beyond the domestic stock market

Emma Wall 6 February, 2014 | 4:02PM
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Emerging markets have not fared well since the credit crisis. After an initial rally in 2009, even the more stable emerging indices have moved sideways - albeit in a volatile manner. Developed markets however have gone from strength to strength, with the FTSE 100 returning to pre-recession levels and the S&P 500 more than doubling its value since 2009.

While the stock markets of developed nations have lead the charge, economic growth in emerging markets has far out-paced that in the West. 

After a promising rally last summer, the Shanghai Composite Index in China has fallen in value - languishing around 2,000 - where just three years ago the index recorded levels of 3,400. In contrast, the US stock market outperformed almost all other markets in 2013 growing from 1,360 to 1,840.

But if you compare the economic growth expectations of these two nations it tells a very different story. Despite a 'slowdown', Chinese growth forecasts hover between 7.7% and 8.6%. Even the most optimistic growth forecasts for the US this year only reach 3.5%.

The same can be said of the UK and the eurozone. While there are unresolved economic issues in developed markets, the large global companies listed there are doing well - thanks to their emerging market exposure.

One such company is Nestle (NESN). As the largest packaged food and beverage firm in the world by revenue, Nestle is one of the leading players in several categories, including beverages, dairy products, confectionery, and pet care. The breadth of its product portfolio makes Nestle a core supplier to grocery stores across the world, and its distribution network is extensive.

Nestle is also undervalued; Morningstar rate it a four-star stock. Listed on the Swiss stock exchange, Nestle is trading at around 65CHF and Morningstar analyst Erin Lash values the company at 71CHF a share. 

"We expect uncertain economic conditions and austerity measures will continue to weigh on the spending of a strained developed-market consumer, but with increased earnings power, emerging-market consumers which account for about 45% of Nestle's consolidated sales are likely to pick up some of the slack," she said.

"Despite the more muted growth that we anticipate from mature developed markets, we were encouraged by management's commentary that investments in product innovation are what will drive sales in these regions rather than promotional spending, which we believe is the right strategy to drive profitable, long-term growth."

 

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Emma Wall  is former Senior International Editor for Morningstar

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