Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) on Monday confirmed that its full year results will be unveiled on February 27 and will include billions of pounds of write-downs on top of those announced in November of last year. Following details of these impairments, Morningstar’s Erin Davis has cut her fair value estimate for RBS share by 15p to 370p apiece.
“Our new fair value estimate is 1.0 times pro forma tangible book value and 0.8 times pro forma book value as of third-quarter 2013, including the fourth-quarter impairments guided in November 2013 and January 2014,” Davis said in her research note of January 27. “We assume that total assets fall 2.4% in 2014 after shrinking nearly 10% in 2013, and that they grow an average of 2.3% between 2015 and 2017,” she added. Looking ahead, Davis forecasts RBS to earn an 8% return on equity by 2016.
While the worst is past RBS, substantial risk remains. Davis points out that the firm’s internal ‘bad bank’ will have about £46 billion of non-core assets that it plans to run-off on an accelerated schedule, which poses significant risks for the bank. Furthermore, with about £35 billion of exposure to Ireland, the firm is at risk of escalating costs should real estate losses increase in Ireland. “Losses there could consume a large chunk of RBS' equity and possibly force yet another capital raise,” Davis said.
As always, politics plays a role in the firm’s future too: “Shareholders also face the likelihood that the government will direct RBS' lending with political, rather than business motives, as we have already seen with RBS' decision to increase SME (small and medium enterprises) lending.” Davis believes that such decisions would likely mean lower returns for shareholders and could involve higher losses over time if RBS is pushed into excessively risky lending.
It’s not all bad news though. With RBS now able to look back at the worst of its recent history in the rear-view mirror, the firm core activities could position the bank to post a profit in 2014—its first since 2007. Opening at 332p on Tuesday, the stock still offers upside versus Morningstar’s fair value estimate of 370p.