Erratic changes in commodity costs for inputs such as petrochemicals, edible oils, and tea can weigh on Unilever's (ULVR) profitability, and we think increased demand in emerging markets is likely to keep costs elevated over the longer term. Further, consumer spending remains weak, reflecting high levels of unemployment and austerity measures that are constraining growth in Europe; as a result, volume growth could stall if Unilever raises prices and consumers opt for lower-priced value offerings.
Also, several of Unilever's largest competitors such as Procter & Gamble (PG), Colgate (CL), L'Oreal (OR), and Nestle (NESTS) are also on the prowl for share gains, which puts the onus on Unilever to ensure its products win at the shelf with consumers.
This said, we're impressed by Unilever's cash flow generation - £4 billion or 9.5% of sales in fiscal 2012, indicating the firm is benefiting from its efforts to reduce supply chain complexity.
Management recently cited that the launch of TRESemme in Brazil added nearly £123 million to its top line, making it one of Unilever's most successful launches in history.
By focusing on opportunities in developing and emerging markets years earlier than its peers, Unilever has realized some of the benefits of being a first-mover and now generates about 55% of its sales from these markets. Because of this however Unilever is subject to changes in foreign exchange rates. This international presence also exposes the firm to political and economic risks.
Exchange rates weighed heavily on Unilever's full year 2013 results, which were mixed relative to our forecasts as a miss on the top line was offset by a higher gross margin. The Refreshment segment was particularly weak, with underlying sales declining by 1.2% on lower 4.3% volumes.
However, Unilever's underlying performance, which excludes any foreign currency impact, is more indicative of its long-term trajectory, and we expect that foreign currency rates will ebb and flow. In addition, while negative foreign currency movements disproportionately weighed on emerging markets, we still expect these regions will outpace more mature markets over the near to medium term, reflecting austerity measures in Europe and high unemployment levels and intense competitive pressures in North America.
Overall, we think Unilever's grasp of consumer trends and investments related to bringing new products to market and marketing spend will ensure that challenges in emerging markets are ultimately resolved.