Where are the Opportunities in Technology?

Technology investment faces an inherent challenge: its limited shelf life. The transition from product innovator to has-been tends to be short compared with other sectors

Coutts 30 December, 2013 | 4:43PM
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This article is part of Morningstar's "Perspectives" series, written by third-party contributors. Here, James Butterfill, Global Equity Strategist at Coutts ponders the future opportunities in the tech sector.

The thrill hasn’t gone from the technology sector, as Twitter’s recent stock market float proves. But technology investment faces an inherent challenge: its limited shelf life. The transition from product innovator to has-been tends to be short compared with other sectors.

Several household names, like Dell, Nokia and BlackBerry-maker Research in Motion, are arguably in decline, as reflected in their cooling valuations. Semiconductor demand has also slowed while PC sales show little sign of recovery amid the mass migration to smaller devices. IT spending on hardware and services is depressed.

We favour more innovative companies that are most exposed to the shifting trends in technology usage, and focus on three key areas:

Data and Cloud

Data storage remains an important trend, driven in the consumer segment by media streaming and cloud and mobile storage. On the enterprise side, there is a need for large data archives and virtualised computers. Spending in this area is expected to grow by 25% in the years to 2016.

Mobile

Near-field communication (NFC), a form of contactless mobile payment, is proliferating rapidly. Terminal shipments to retailers stand at 14m units and are set to rise to 1.2bn by 2017 as smartphone makers rapidly adopt wireless payment technology (as backed by Visa and Google via Google Wallet).

A competing technology is the point of sale (PoS) plug-in, which is likely to be favoured by smaller retailers as it’s less expensive. Manufacturers of plug-ins for NFS and PoS are likely to benefit, as will traditional payment processors that adopt the technology.

Automation

Robots are widely used by manufacturers in developed economies, and the boost in productivity to the US economy alone from increased automation will be equivalent to 90m full-time workers, according to management consultants McKinsey.

Emerging economies haven’t automated their manufacturing processes owing to their low labour costs and are way behind developed-market counterparts. However, as labour costs rise, exporter countries with high manufacturing-sector wage growth are most likely to adopt robotics. China and Turkey stand to benefit most from improved efficiency through automating their manufacturing sectors.

We believe smaller, more nimble companies are better placed to benefit from the opportunities that still abound in the technology sector. We prefer to access these investment opportunities via specialist fund managers with particular expertise in and knowledge about technology developments.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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