Five years ago, luxury and aspiration was a key driver of returns, but more recently the emphasis has shifted to other emerging themes. In the last three years we have focused on the themes of health and wellness and technology mobility.
Health and Wellness
In 2010, we began to build up exposure to healthcare stocks, having identified the strong structural tailwinds for the sector. There is significant demand for healthcare across emerging markets, which are forecast to contribute around 70% of pharmaceuticals growth over the next five years. The Chinese government is investing $125 billion into developing their healthcare system, recognising that it will also contribute to greater productivity by the workforce. Healthcare spending in emerging markets is increasing, however, is still small by developed world standards so this thematic remains of interest to the fund manager.
Much of the intellectual property and trust for healthcare products still resides with developed market companies, which creates significant value as these companies distribute more globally. Of the $180 billion spent on pharmaceuticals in 2012, 94% were branded. Sanofi, for example, is a leading provider of diabetes treatment in China, where three quarters of Chinese patients remain untreated.
Of this theme we believe there is significantly less upside that 12 months ago following a strong re-rating, but fundamentals are still good and can give a portfolio a defensive balance.
Mobility – anything, anywhere, anytime
In the last three years, we have seen a significant development in the mobility theme: cloud, gaming, and smart devices. Development in this area has been exponential. Sales of smart phones have increased by several times in the last 5 years and shipments are forecasted to exceed one billion in 2013. In 2012, mobile traffic data was 12 times the size of the entire global internet in 2000. Mobile network connection speeds more than doubled in 2012 alone.
Meanwhile, forecasts for this thematic are equally encouraging. Global mobile data traffic is expected to increase 13 fold by 2017. By the end of this year, the number of mobile connected devices will exceed the number of people on earth.
Microsoft is a prime example of a stock that captures this theme. We recognised the strong position the company had in building out the back office systems, a good cloud business, stable cashflow akin to a consumer staple and attractive valuation.
We continue to like this theme and believe that technology stocks still offer the best risk for reward in markets.