Japan Stimulus To Lift Stock Market Higher

Stock market jitters over the liquidity lost when the Fed tapers QE are unnecessary, says fixed income manager - Japan's stimulus will more than plug the hole

Emma Wall 28 October, 2013 | 10:18AM
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When former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke announced plans to withdraw stimulus from the US money market earlier this year, global stock markets plunged. 

It has been suggested that the S&P's considerable rally over the past three and a half years has been entirely due to the US Federal Bank's quantitative easing packages. Indeed over the time that the US has been printing money all the major global indices have risen - including the FTSE 100.

It is hardly surprising therefore that there were cross market jitters when it was announced this stimulus was to be tapered – and then a bounce back when the Fed subsequently backtracked and put off tapering plans until 2014.

Investors may be concerned that this is simply deferring the inevitable - and that equity markets will ride high until the moment new Fed chairman Janet Yellen starts to withdraw stimulus. 

But Franklin Templeton head of European fixed interest David Zahn says that markets - and investors - have nothing to worry about, as Abenomics will save the day.

"Where will global liquidity come from post-QE? Japan. The Bank of Japan will be printing trillions of dollars in order to meet its 2% inflation target," Zahn said.

"Japanese investors will buy overseas assets, this stimulus will affect the whole of the global market and offset US tapering."

The bond manager predicted that the Fed will begin tapering QE in April 2014 - an entire year after the plan was initially announced. By then, the effect of Japanese stimulus will have filtered through to other markets. 

"The Bank of England will not raise rates nor print more cash and the Fed will be tapering QE, but both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will implement measures to support global growth," he said.

Zahn said that he expects global growth to be positive in the medium term, but emerging markets will outperform developed ones.

The bond manager said that of the developed countries he was unconcerned about Italy, as although the nation had a large debt to GDP ratio, it had done so for 20 years. 

"France however, has a lower debt to GDP ratio than Italy, but it is growing at an alarming rate," he said. "I am more concerned about fundamentals worsening."

 

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Emma Wall  is former Senior International Editor for Morningstar

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