In May, the performance of exchange-traded products (ETPs) tracking European automakers placed them at the top of the European ETP universe. European automakers’ stocks appreciated substantially during the month of May, rising 13-15% based on hopes for a resurgence in domestic demand.
If we look under the bonnet of the STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts index, the top three German automakers--Daimler (DAI), BMW (BMW) and Volkswagen (VOW)--dominate the portfolio, representing approximately 60% of its total value. Despite being comprised of European automobile and parts manufacturers, the index tends to be driven by global market dynamics since the largest constituents conduct business worldwide. As a general rule, the auto industry tends to be highly cyclical and capital intensive compared to other equity sectors. Due to the cyclicality and high fixed costs, auto producers' profits can fluctuate in the face of relatively small changes in demand.
Indeed, May’s strong performance can most likely be attributed to data that suggest a turnaround in the European auto market may be on the horizon. In May, the European automakers association reported that new car registrations rose 1.7% in April compared to 2012, marking the first positive growth rate in 19 months. Given that Europe’s first quarter auto sales fell 10%, data indicating a resurgence in demand was warmly received. However, other more recent data seem to suggest that the outlook for European automakers in Europe is not altogether bright. In France, auto sales fell 10.3% on a year-over-year basis in May after a 5.2% decline in April. Spain, meanwhile, saw its auto sales decline 2.6% in May as well. Overall, projections for European auto demand predict approximately a 5% decline for the calendar year 2013. In terms of global auto demand for 2013, Moody's Investors Service anticipates global auto sales growth will slow to 2.9%, marking a downward revision to its previous forecast of 4.5% growth for 2013. Moody's cites weaker demand from Europe and China as proximate causes for the expected slowdown in auto sales this year.
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