Tomorrow the World
Amid the chaos were two pieces of good news - and the potentially significant one was rather buried away. Let's go out and conquer the world.
The lesser (unless you were one of the 105,000 who got a job) news was that levels of employment rose modestly in March. Modestly, yes, and most jobs were part time but any increase in the current economic situation is a triumph of hope over adversity.
More important is that we are increasing exports to countries outside the European Union. It was always short sighted to concentrate on just one continent and abandon the world. Despite our desertion, the Commonwealth is as strong a unit as ever. And the Commonwealth does not include the two massive markets of the US and China.
Investors would do well to remember that there are plenty of companies quoted on the London Stock Exchange that have a global reach. We are all affected by events in Europe but there is no need to be dragged down by them.
The big difficulty is assessing when panic has taken share prices down so far that the only way is back up.
It is disappointing that we have fallen through 5,400 points. This was the ceiling when shares were moving sideways a couple of years ago and I hoped it would provide a floor. The next psychological level is 5,000 points, which is not significant in itself but is a memorably round number.
My personal inclination is to hold off until the dust settles but good luck to any brave souls who are starting to buy at what are distressed levels. Fortune favours the brave and there are some juicy yields to be had. Even the timid should be ready to pile in.
Incidentally, I see that gold has lost a fifth of its value since it peaked above $1,700 an ounce. Michael Aronstein, a New York-based asset manager, says what I have been arguing for years: "Gold is just another risk asset."
Muck and Brass
Keep an eye on Shanks Group (SKS), the waste management company. It is admittedly exposed to the eurozone, with more than 70% of its revenues generated in the Benelux countries. At least it is not dependent on the struggling peripheral eurozone, but it will see revenue and profits held back if the euro continues to weaken.
Nonetheless, it reports a 5% rise in revenue and a 7% rise in underlying profits for the year to March 2012. The Dutch hazardous waste business contributed an extra 28% to the profit figure.
The shares rose on the results but are still down so far this year. I may be tempted myself when the stock market settles.
Disconnection
All jokes lose their punch after you have heard them a few times and the joke is on retailer French Connection Group (FCCN). It is more than 10 years and, for me, three employers ago since I first warned investors off French Connection and its silly, juvenile dyslexics joke.
The group clung to its FCUK image long after it ceased to have shock value and became distracted from moving on. The outcome was a downward spiral, much to the amusement of prudes like me.
The spiral continues with yet another profit warning. French Connection may even be losing money in the tough retail environment. The shares have slumped below 30p but do not be tempted to buy for recovery. Make sure that the joke is not on you.
Much, much less serious is the situation at Tesco (TSCO), which certainly will continue to make profits and pay dividends. However, I still worry about how events are unfolding. It seems that Asda is taking customers away and that Tesco, despite still having more than 30% of supermarket sales, continues to slip back.
I have been negative on the shares for several months now and I see no sign of mighty Tesco turning the corner. Until it does, I shall stick with Sainsbury (SBRY).
Minus Plus
I was genuinely saddened by the news that the Plus market, the third tier of share trading in the UK, is to close. Hope does not always triumph over adversity.
Perhaps this is a little hypocritical, as I have never bought shares on Plus, nor would I ever encourage any investor to do so as I believe that most if not all the companies quoted on it are too small and the shares too illiquid to make the market viable. I just hoped that I would be proved wrong.
A handful of the 150 companies concerned will move up to AIM but I feel the numbers will be very small. After all, those companies that wished to be on AIM would have joined the second tier market rather than the less prestigious Plus.
Investing in very small companies is a massive risk. The whole purpose of the stock market is to provide investors with a means of cashing in whenever they want or need to. Illiquid shares do not fit in.
Weekly Market Movements
Monday, May 14 – Friday, May 18
FTSE 100: -5.52%
FTSE 250: -5.31%
FTSE All Share: -5.47%
FTSE Small-Cap: -4.64%
FTSE Fledgling: -4.48%
FTSE AIM 100: -7.00%
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