Shire (SHP) is moving into the regenerative medicine space with the acquisition of Advanced BioHealing, Inc., a firm that markets a skin substitute, Dermagraft, to treat diabetic foot ulcers in the United States. Shire plans to pay for the $750 million acquisition with existing cash, virtually wiping out the firm's first-quarter cash reserves. While we're sceptical of the synergies that Shire could gain from the deal, cash flows from future sales of Dermagraft balance the upfront payment for the acquisition in our valuation, and we're maintaining our fair value estimate.
Dermagraft has been on the market for 10 years, and product sales in 2010 grew to $146 million, or a 5% patient share. Dermagraft fits in Shire's Specialty Pharmaceuticals business--given its specialist niche and small required sales force--but we don't see much overlap with existing products. In addition, while Shire expects its experience with its Human Genetic Therapies business to help it to improve manufacturing efficiency and capacity for Dermagraft, the product is manufactured in a separate plant and differs significantly from the enzyme replacement therapies that Shire markets. However, if Shire's global commercial expertise allows for broader marketing--in new geographic regions or in new indications, such as venous leg ulcers--we think the acquisition could add value to the firm.
We're suspending our credit rating on Shire and are considering a modest reduction in light of this new acquisition. We previously assigned Shire an A+ credit rating, reflecting its light debt leverage and good cash flow prospects. While we still think that Shire could be in a position to repay its $1.1 billion in convertible debt by that issue's May 2012 put date if necessary, the firm's progress on its net debt position has taken a significant step backward with this acquisition. By the end of the first quarter, Shire's net debt had improved to $365 million; despite significant cash flow generation, we now expect Shire to simply regain its first-quarter net debt position by the end of 2011.