What to Expect from the Week Ahead

A busy week for retailers and economic news will give more insights into the outcomes of Christmas shopping, inflation levels at home and abroad and international trade

Morningstar.co.uk Editors 10 January, 2011 | 9:34AM
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This week will provide us with more information on how British retailers have fared in the winter weather that convinced many consumers to stay home during the year’s busiest shopping season. Following disheartening announcements about the holiday sales figures of Next (NXT) and HMV (HMV) last week, Morrison (MRW) will kick start this week with an update on Monday, followed by one trading update by a major retailer every day almost until the end of the week. Marks & Spencer (MKS) takes centre stage on Tuesday, followed by Sainsbury (SBRY) on Wednesday and Tesco (TSCO) on Thursday.

Further down on the market capitalisation scale, high street baker Greggs (GRG) will issue a full-year trading update on Wednesday and will be joined by reports by the Restaurant Group (RTN) on the same day and the Hilton Food Group (HFG) on Friday.

On the economic news front, consolidated data about the bottom line of the holiday shopping season will be available from the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor for December and BRC Shop Price Index, due on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.

Retail Sales for December are also expected across the pond on Friday. The consumer will be king, said Morningstar’s Director of Economic Analysis Bob Johnson in his outlook for the US economic recovery in 2011, and therefore Friday’s figures could gives us some clues of the strength of the latter.

Elsewhere on the busy macroeconomic horizon this week, international trade, inflation and production figures are scheduled for release at home and overseas.

On the production side, industrial production in the EU and UK is due mid-week, as well as manufacturing output for the UK, while US production data will be out on Friday. If and how much better than some EU member states Germany is doing will become more clear also on Wednesday when the German annual GDP number is due.

For insights into price movements at home and abroad, we will be looking at UK producer prices and EU consumer prices due on Friday, as well as US producer and consumer prices out on Thursday and Friday respectively.

Needless to day, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will have a hefty load of data to digest during its first meeting for 2011 this Thursday. The outcomes of these meetings regarding the base interest rate and BoE’s asset purchase target have become a non-event at this point following 10 months of no change, but the dissenting voices of members Sentance and Posen will draw some attention.

Monday
UK Corporate Announcements
Morrison (MRW) Christmas trading statement

International Economic Announcements
France: Industrial Production for November, Manufacturing Output for November
EU: Sentix Investor Confidence for January

Tuesday
UK Corporate Announcements
Marks & Spencer (MKS) third-quarter update, Autonomy (AU.) trading statement

UK Economic Announcements
BRC Retail Sales Monitor for December, RICS House Price Balance for December

International Economic Announcements
Japan: M3 Supply for December, Trade Balance for November
France: Bank of France Business Sentiment for December
US: RICS House Price Balance for December, Wholesale Inventories for November

Wednesday
UK Corporate Announcements
Sainsbury (SBRY) third-quarter trading update, Weir Group (WEIR) trading statement, Retaurant Group (RTN) trading update, Greggs (GRG) full-year trading update

Ex-dividend Date
FTSE 100: British Land (BLND), HSBC Holdings (HSBA), Lonmin (LMI)
FTSE 250: F&C Commercial Property Trust (FCPT), The Paragon Group of Companies (PAG)

UK Economic Announcements
BRC Shop Price Index , BRC Shop Price Index for November , Non-EU Trade Balance for November

International Economic Announcements
Japan: Bankruptcies, Bankruptcies
France: Current Account for November
Germany: GDP year-on-year
EU: Import Price Index for November
US: Import Price Index for December

Thursday
UK Corporate Announcements
Tesco (TSCO) Christmas trading statement

UK Economic Announcements
Industrial Production for November, Manufacturing Output for November, Halifax House Prices for December, Bank of England MPC Base Rate Decision and Asset Purchase Target

International Economic Announcements
France: CPI for December
EU: ECB Rate Decision
US: Weekly Jobless Claims, PPI for December, Trade Balance for December

Friday
UK Corporate Announcements
Hilton Food Group (HFG) trading update

UK Economic Announcements
PPI for December

International Economic Announcements
Germany: CPI for December
EU: CPI for December, Trade Balance for November
US: CPI for December, Retail Sales for December, Industrial Production for December, Capacity Utilisation for December, Business Inventories for November

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