Morningstar is initiating credit coverage of Vodafone (VOD) with a BBB+ rating, reflecting the firm's massive size offset somewhat by its determination to increase its dividend payout and uncertainty surrounding its ownership structure. Vodafone serves about 350 million wireless proportionate customers (total customers multiplied by its ownership interest in each of its subsidiaries and investments), making it the second-largest carrier in the world. Scale brings advantages in most markets the firm serves, but especially emerging markets, where its expertise is highly valuable. With operations spread across a multitude of countries, political and economic risk is well diversified.
Revenue and cash flow have grown steadily in recent years, averaging about £7 billion annually over the past five years. Vodafone has spent £17 billion on acquisitions during this period, but it has also realised £12 billion from asset sales, including the strategically important sale of its Japanese operation. This cash flow performance supports the firm's debt load, which stands at £33 billion net of £9 billion in cash and investments, or about 2.0 times EBITDA. Verizon Wireless, in which the firm holds a 45% stake, provides little cash flow to Vodafone. Verizon Wireless has a solid financial position, but it is unclear when the firm will begin sending meaningful dividends up to its parents. We are also somewhat concerned that Vodafone will add leverage to acquire full control of its Italian operation.
The sale of Vodafone's stake in SFR in France could provide cash in the near future, but the firm has shown a strong propensity to returning cash to shareholders recently. Proceeds from the sale of its stake in China Mobile (CHL) will be used to repurchase shares, and the firm has committed to increasing its dividend 7% annually over the next three years.