We're growing increasingly concerned about the impact that recent production issues at De La Rue (DLAR) could have on the firm's business longer term. The company admitted last week that the production problem it announced in July, which led to the departure of chief executive James Hussey, could now result in the loss of the client involved in the mishap. The customer, rumoured to be the Reserve Bank of India, is one of De La Rue's largest clients, the loss of which would have a meaningful impact on revenue and profitability.
Given the increased uncertainty that has been created by this situation regarding the firm's near-term financials and its long-term reputation, we think a wider margin of safety is required on the shares. We believe De La Rue's reputation is critical to the success of its business and will be taking a closer look at our fair value estimate--currently 844p per share--to ensure that it adequately reflects the potential loss of this client.
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