What to expect from the week ahead

Earnings from oil & gas industry heavyweights, the Bank of England's rate-setting meeting and the US labour report take centre stage

Holly Cook 31 January, 2010 | 3:09PM
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Stock market myth has it that the direction of trade during the month of January sets the tone for the rest of the year and with the FTSE 100 index down 3.9% since December 31, 2009, this doesn’t bode well for UK equities. But having come on the back of a 50%+ rally, this has hardly been a ‘normal’ January and, what’s more, the first week of February contains a raft of key earnings releases and economic data that should help illustrate the health of the corporates and the economy as a whole.

Five of the FTSE 100’s largest constituents by market cap are due to report earnings this coming week, three of which are key oil & gas sector players BP, Royal Dutch Shell and BG Group. BP on Tuesday is expected to report net income growth in the region of a whopping 85% for the fourth quarter on an annualised basis, while RDS is seen posting net income of a little less than $3.0 billion after recording just under $4.0 billion in the final quarter of 2008. Both companies are likely to uphold their long track record of with maintaining or increasing dividends—the former being on the cards this time round. On Friday, BG’s fourth quarter net income is forecast to come in a tad lower year-on-year at around £1.0 billion but analysts at Charles Stanley expect the oil and gas explorer to up its dividend to 12.7p per share from 11.2p in 2008.

Other major UK-listed companies to update the market this week include Kazakh-based miner Eurasian Natural Resources (Wednesday), mobile phone giant Vodafone and pharmaceuticals firm GlaxoSmithKline, both on Thursday.

A number of industry bellwethers will also unveil results in the US, among them Pfizer, ExxonMobil and Cisco Systems.

Among M&A news, investors will be looking to see if the recent rumours surrounding Shanks Group that bidder private equity Carlyle is preparing to up its offer for the waste management group contain any truth.

Monday
Several indicators of the state of the British housing market are due out on Monday, including Hometrack’s house price index, net consumer credit, net lending secured on dwellings and mortgage approvals. These will be accompanied by M4 money supply and an insight into industrial activity with the release of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) manufacturing survey.

Across the pond, the Institute of Supply Management's monthly manufacturing report and the US government's reports on personal income and spending will both be eyed.

Tuesday
More UK housing market data will come out on Tuesday, this time from Halifax in the form of house prices, as well as the PMI construction survey. Americans have auto sales and pending home sales to look forward to.

Wednesday
The PMI services survey and the composite PMI readings will be announced on mid-week, as will the Nationwide reading of UK consumer confidence, while in the US the main focus will be on the ISM non-manufacturing report, which last month moved back into the positive, and the ADP’s employment data. The latter will be dwarfed later in the week, however, when the month’s US labour report is released.

Thursday
This will be a key day for UK investors as the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meets to set the interest rate. The rate decision itself is virtually pre-decided as the Bank has indicated rates will remain at their current record low of 0.5% for some time but what will be of more interest is any news on the quantitative easing. The MPC has been expected to opt to leave the stimulus programme unchanged but last week’s disappointing GDP reading has raised the chances of additional asset purchases being announced.

In the US, weekly jobless claims will continue the lead up to Friday’s main report.

Friday
The producer prices index readings are scheduled for release on Friday but these are likely to be overshadowed by US nonfarm-payrolls data and the latest reading on the unemployment rate. Consensus is for the latter to remain around 10%.

See Morningstar's corporate calendar for more information on upcoming releases.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Holly Cook

Holly Cook  is Manager, Morningstar EMEA Websites

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