What to expect from the week ahead

China's fourth quarter GDP and a host of US banks reporting earnings will take centre stage this week

Holly Cook 17 January, 2010 | 7:33PM
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Earnings season gets into full swing in the US this week, with banks providing the main focus as several industry leaders following JP Morgan in reporting results. The quarterly earnings reported this time a year ago revealed a number of particularly weak performances so this time round it’s expected that we will see substantial improvements on an annual basis, though whether such improvements will be enough to please investors remains to be seen.

On the economic front, Thursday’s gross domestic product data from China will be closely watched after last week’s step by the Asian economy to tighten monetary policy. Consensus is for the nation’s fourth quarter growth to have returned to doule digits after expansion of 8.9% in the previous quarter, though while a surprise on the downside will raise concerns about the global recovery, a surprise on the upside could raise fears the Chinese government will speed up plans to remove stimulus.

To add to these concerns, there is also the ongoing issue of sovereign debt, led by Greece at present but also encompassing Iceland and other nations such as Spain.

Monday
Wall Street will remain closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King national holiday, so a quiet start to the week is expected, with online retailer Asos and housebuilder Taylor Wimpey providing insights into their respective industries when they report results here in the UK.

Tuesday
Market movements will gather pace on Tuesday as Citigroup and leading tech firm IBM unveil quarterly numbers, while interdealer broker IG Group will report interim results in the UK and trading updates are due from retailers Burberry and Carphone Warehouse, as well as real estate investment trust Land Securities and brewer SABMiller.

On the merger and acquisition front, Tuesday is a key date for the Cadbury saga as hostile bidder Kraft has until midnight to adjust its current offer. Press reports out this weekend suggest the US firm is preparing to up its bid to value the UK confectioner at 820p per share or more against the current value of just over 770p per share.

Among economic releases, UK investors have both consumer and retail price indices to digest.

Wednesday
The mid-week session plays host to a number of important releases, with Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon and Wells Fargo among those banks to report quarterly earnings, while economic data due include the US producer price index and housing numbers.

Here in the UK, diversified miner BHP Billiton, electricals retailers Kesa and pubs operator JD Wetherspoon will all update the market on recent trading.

The minutes from the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be closely eyed for further information on how the UK’s policy-setters feel about the state the of the economy and its recovery at present. Other data to be released on Wednesday include unemployment data and CBI order expectations.

Thursday
More US financials will be in the spotlight on Thursday—this time Goldman Sachs and American Express are on the list of earnings announcers, while numbers from Google and AMD will set the tone for the tech industry.

American airline Continental will also update the market, as will UK no-frills airline easyJet.

In addition to China’s GDP report, the US will release leading indicators, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey, while UK news will include BBA mortgage approvals and public sector net borrowing figures.

Friday
The final day of the working week will host trading statements from Close Brothers and Invensys and a preliminary reading of the US economy’s output in the first quarter of 2010.

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Holly Cook

Holly Cook  is Manager, Morningstar EMEA Websites

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