What to expect from the week ahead

Will stock markets be able to regain the losses of the previous week in the face of sovereign debt issues?

Holly Cook 30 November, 2009 | 8:53AM
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With Wall Street reopening on Monday for its first full trading session since the Dubai World news that prompted stock market losses of the magnitude not seen since March, all eyes will be on the US investor reaction to the sovereign debt repayment issue.

Those European markets hosting the banks that are thought to bear the brunt of Dubai World’s financing managed to hold relatively steady on Friday, having suffered severely the previous session, so whether they can stick with these stable ways this week and on into the end of the year remains to be seen.

Monday
Much will depend on the next few weeks’ economic data reports. Kicking off this week is UK money supply and consumer credit data. UK banks are expected to have moderately increased mortgage approvals in October, while consumer credit is still forecast to be in the red but to a lesser extent in October than in the previous month.

Germany’s retail sales, also due Monday, are forecast to show an expansion last month compared to September’s 0.5% contraction month-on-month.

Over in the US, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index is seen at zero in November—an improvement on the previous month’s 3.3% decline, but the Chicago purchasing managers’ index survey may show a slight slide month-on-month amid economic uncertainty—though a figure above 50 still represents expansion.

Tuesday
On Tuesday, the US will report its ISM manufacturing survey data, which prices paid expected to remain in the region of 65.0, while activity slips to around 54.8 this month versus 55.7 previously. The UK will also report its own PMI manufacturing survey on Tuesday, seen little changed at around 54.0. With Britain’s housing market winding down for the holiday season, pending homes sales are likely to tail off this month and the next, seen down 0.5% in November after a 6.1% gain the month before.

Wednesday
Wednesday’s focal point will be the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released after the Wall Street close, while on this side of the Atlantic the Eurozone producer price index is seen improving slightly to register a flat performance in October.

Thursday
More economic insights will come from the EC on Thursday, when investors will have the region’s retail sales (where marginal month-on-month growth is expected in October), PMI composite index (final reading of 53.7 forecast for November), European Central Bank interest rate decision (unchanged at 1.0%) and, most importantly for many, the region’s third quarter gross domestic product reading (expected to confirm 0.4% expansion over the July-September period).

US jobs data will also be eyed on Thursday, when non-farm productivity is expected to have slipped slightly in the third quarter, while labour cost falls shows signs of deceleration.

Friday
More US labour market data is due on Friday. Following the previous day’s quarterly job report, investors will have November data to digest with the change in non-farm payrolls for the month predicted to show 118,000 were knocked off the payroll this month, though this is less than the 190,000 registered in October. November’s unemployment rate is seen unchanged on a monthly basis at 10.2%.

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Holly Cook

Holly Cook  is Manager, Morningstar EMEA Websites

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