The idea that United States has dodged an economic slowdown has given investors renewed enthusiasm for riskier assets and forced a sell-off of safe havens. Markets plunged lower last November and December as investors were pricing in a sharp economic slowdown; consumer spending had drastically slowed and Chinese economic metrics indicated economic contraction in the world's second-largest economy. However, the markets bottomed out at the end of December after global central banks quickly dialled back on their programmes to normalise or tighten monetary policy.
Among the economic metrics released last week, nonfarm payrolls for March increased to 196,000 from the stagnant 33,000 reported in February. Investors were pleasantly surprised as the March report was higher than consensus expectations and near the top of the consensus range. At 3.8%, the unemployment rate remained near its 49-year low and wage growth grew 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, reflecting a tight labour market.
Additionally, the Trump administration said it expects to reach a new trade accord with China within the next four weeks. As investors became more comfortable that the economy will continue to chug along and looked forward to trade normalisation, risk asset prices continued to rise. The stabilisation across recent economic metrics has led to a significant improvement in the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Nowcast projection for first-quarter 2019 GDP growth. The Nowcast projection has risen to 2.1% after hitting a low of only 0.2% at the beginning of March.
In the corporate bond market, the average credit spread of the Morningstar Corporate Bond Index, our proxy for the investment-grade corporate bond market, tightened 3 basis points to +119. Yields on Treasury bonds rose by 8-9 basis points across the curve as prices on Treasury bonds fell. By the end of the week, the yield on 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year bonds rose to 2.34%, 2.31%, 2.50%, and 2.90%, In the equity market, the S&P 500 rose 2.06% to a level that is less than 2% away from its all-time highs.