We are downgrading our credit rating for AstraZeneca (AZN) to A because of its recent increase in debt leverage and its weak growth prospects. Those weak prospects and the firm’s dividend commitment may make it difficult for the firm to deleverage in the next few years. The firm’s rating outlook is stable.
Weak profit growth puts AstraZeneca near the bottom of the pack in the large pharmaceutical industry
Our A credit rating reflects the negative moat trend that surrounds its wide moat in the pharmaceutical industry and its weak balance sheet relative to other large pharmaceutical peers. Like most other large drug firms, we believe the company operates with a wide economic moat based on patent protection, an entrenched salesforce, and economies of scale.
However the firm is facing a tough patent cliff. It recently lost or will imminently lose patent protection on products that represented roughly half of its firm’s sales at peak. For example, Symbicort has lost patent protection, but because it has challenging properties for generics to copy, the decline in sales has been limited to the low single digits so far. Heartburn treatment Nexium also lost patent protection, and is declining at a much sharper rate. Cholesterol drug Crestor and antipsychotic therapy Seroquel XR will lose patent protection in 2016; these drugs represent about a fourth of AstraZeneca’s sales.
Going forward, we project that AstraZeneca's promising set of new products and pipeline candidates may help stabilize the top line by 2017. We believe the most potential lies with recently launched Brilinta (unstable angina), Forxiga (diabetes), and Lynparza (immuno-oncology). Those products should help the firm withstand its steep patent cliff, and we expect EBITDA will remain roughly stable from 2015 to 2020.
Our forecast for weak profit growth puts AstraZeneca near the bottom of the pack in the large pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry. Considering the firm's weak outlook, we had hoped that AstraZeneca would remain more conservative with its balance sheet and capital-allocation policies. However, on a pro forma basis after recent debt issuance to fund an acquisition and general corporate purposes, we estimate that AstraZeneca’s net debt/adjusted EBITDA has risen to about 1.3 times as of September, or about a turn higher than net leverage at the end of 2014. In addition to the higher debt leverage, cash flows have weakened as it has faced competition on several key products, such as Nexium and Symbicort.
During the 12 months ended September, it has not even generated enough free cash flow to fully offset its $3.5 billion annualized dividend. The company's cash flows may remain weak, as patents will expire on products representing about a fourth of sales in 2016. Those weak cash flow prospects and its dividend commitment will make it difficult for the company to deleverage significantly until growth returns to the business, which by our estimates will occur around 2018.
If AstraZeneca returns to a more conservative net leverage position below 1 times on a sustainable basis, though, we may consider an upgrade. If profits continue to fall or the firm becomes even more aggressive with its balance sheet, causing net leverage to rise to 2 or more times on a sustainable basis, we would consider another downgrade.