Shares in BG Group (BG.) slumped as much as 16% in Monday trade after the gas producer announced it has declared force majeure for its liquefied natural gas agreements in Egypt. Morningstar analyst Allen Good said he is likely to reduce his fair value estimate on the stock.
BG said on Monday that continued diversions of gas volumes to the domestic market means it cannot fulfill its obligations to deliver gas to Egyptian LNG. As a result, BG lowered its 2014 and 2015 production guidance and increased its 2014 operating cost estimate.
"We expect this news to result in a lower valuation, and we are placing our fair value estimate under review until we can incorporate the latest guidance into our forecast," said Good, immediately following the firm's announcement. Good's previous fair value estimate was 1,500p per share, incorporating his forecast for five-year (2012-2017) compound annual production growth at a rate of 11%.
BG faces the geopolitical risk normally associated with operating in politically unstable countries, where damage to assets or renegotiation of contract terms may harm profitability. Good sees long-term growth potential for the firm, however, albeit with a heightened sense of risk.
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